Gemini, a cryptocurrency exchange, has expressed its expectation of net inflows in spot Ethereum ETFs of up to $5 billion in the first six months. The approval and launch of spot Ethereum ETFs are anticipated on July 4, with divergent views on their potential impact. While some analysts believe that ETH ETFs will not meet expectations, others argue that they will have a bullish effect on ETH and the wider cryptocurrency ecosystem.
Gemini’s analysts also highlighted that the market value of ETH against Bitcoin is currently near its lowest levels in recent years. They suggested that strong inflows to spot ETH ETFs can counterbalance the decline in ETH price and potentially lead to an increase. Gemini stated, “Given differentiating factors such as comparable AUM in international ETF markets, strong on-chain dynamics, and an evolving stablecoin environment, a bullish ETH trade could be in store in the coming months.”
Furthermore, the analysts noted that if the Ethereum/Bitcoin rate returns to the average of the last three years, there may be an increase of nearly 20 percent. However, if the ETH/BTC rate returns to its maximum of 0.087, a 55 percent increase may occur.
Gemini emphasized that net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs below $3 billion would be disappointing, especially considering that Bitcoin ETFs experienced $15 billion in inflows in the first six months. On the other hand, net inflows above $5 billion, which is one-third of Bitcoin ETF inflows, would be a strong indicator for ETH and the market. If BTC ETF inflows reach 50% or come close to $7.5 billion, it would be a surprising and significant upside for ETH, according to Gemini’s analysts.
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