Standard Chartered has made a bold prediction regarding the Bitcoin price, stating that it could reach a new all-time high of $73,000 on November 5, which coincides with the US presidential election. Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, based this prediction on his analysis of Bitcoin futures and trading volume indicators.
Kendrick explained that their analysis takes into account daily Bitcoin volume levels and popular strike levels to forecast post-election price movements. Their baseline assumption is that the BTC price will be around $73,000 on election day.
Furthermore, Kendrick highlighted the potential impact of the election outcome on Bitcoin’s price. If former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, options breakevens suggest a potential 4% increase in Bitcoin’s price once the results are certified. Additionally, there could be a total increase of around 10% in the days following a Trump victory.
Kendrick also emphasized the significance of dynamics in the options market. He noted a heavy open interest in BTC call options that expired at an $80,000 strike price on December 27, indicating a strong movement towards that level.
In terms of political implications, Kendrick suggested that a Republican takeover of Congress could further drive up Bitcoin prices. In this scenario, he stated that their year-end target for Bitcoin could be $125,000. On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may experience an initial drop but is expected to finish 2024 around $75,000.
Kendrick also pointed out recent trading activity as a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s future. He observed that the price of Bitcoin has been rising in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades favored by Trump supporters. Kendrick cited RealClearPolitics’ current odds, which show a 59% chance of Trump winning, and certain markets like Polymarket, which give a 75% chance of the Republicans winning if Trump is victorious.
In conclusion, Kendrick believes that the recent local low of $65,200 could be the final dip before the US elections, suggesting increasing momentum leading up to November 5. However, it’s important to note that this information is not investment advice.
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