The year 2025 was entered with mega bull expectations, but 2025 is not going as expected.
At this point, let’s see what investors expect from BTC as it has fallen by about 23% from its ATH to $80,000 levels.
According to Polymarket data, the probability of Bitcoin falling to $70,000 in 2025 is 69%, while the probability of the BTC price reaching $110,000 is priced at 59%.
The $120,000 target, once a close one for Bitcoin, is priced at 47%.
The probability of the BTC price reaching $130,000 is seen as 37%, and the probability of it reaching $150,000 is seen as 29%.
The probability of the Bitcoin price reaching $200,000 is priced at 15%, the probability of it reaching $250,000 is priced at 12% and the probability of it reaching $1,000,000 is priced at 4%.
At the beginning of the year, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $120,000 by 2025 was priced in at 71%. It even rose to 87% by the time Trump was inaugurated in late January. However, after Donald Trump took office, it has steadily fallen.
Another important expectation is focused on altcoin ETFs pending before the SEC. According to the data, the Solana ETF has an 89% probability of approval, while the XRP ETF has a 77%, the Litecoin ETF has a 72%, and the Dogecoin ETF has a 69% probability of approval.
*This is not investment advice.