Bitcoin Shows Signs of Maturity, Ready to Gain If Macro Headwinds Ease
Bitcoin is behaving “quite differently” during the current market downturn, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, which suggests increasing maturity and resilience.
In a client note published early Tuesday, Hougan highlighted that Bitcoin has remained virtually unchanged over the past month.
“Bitcoin is trading at $84,379. A month ago it was $84,317. That’s a 30-day return of 0.07%,” Hougan wrote. “From the US creating a Bitcoin strategic reserve to President Trump imposing tariffs on the entire world, there have been huge forces affecting the crypto market from every angle, and we’ve gone right sideways.”
U.S. stocks have fallen since their February peak, with the S&P 500 down 12%. Bitcoin followed suit with a 12.4% drop, but that still represented significant performance compared to previous macro sell-offs, Hougan noted.
For example, during the market crash of 2022, Bitcoin lost 58.3% of its value, compared to the S&P’s 24.5% decline. Similarly, during the pandemic crash of early 2020 and the 2018 US-China trade war, Bitcoin’s losses far exceeded those of stocks.
“Since Bitcoin broke $1 in 2011, it has never outperformed the stock market during a full-blown market correction. This time, I think it has a chance,” Hougan said.
While gold has overshadowed both stocks and Bitcoin during the current correction, Hougan emphasized that Bitcoin’s recent resilience — holding above $80,000 amid global uncertainty — is a testament to its growing role as a resilient asset.
“The world is unraveling and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000. If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will,” he said.
While Hougan stopped short of calling Bitcoin a full-fledged hedge asset, he suggested that the crypto’s behavior signals a structural shift. With increasing institutional and regulatory interest, the cryptocurrency is shedding its high-risk asset tag and increasingly being viewed as digital gold.
*This is not investment advice.