While encryption systems, seen as the firewall of cryptocurrencies, have maintained their resilience for many years, recent warnings from the world’s largest asset manager, BlackRock, suggest that this security may not last forever.
BlackRock has significantly expanded its risk disclosures about the threats posed by quantum computers in its updated filing for its iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF). The new filing includes more sweeping statements about how technological advances could undermine Bitcoin’s fundamental security structure.
Whereas the document previously mentioned that only “breakthroughs in mathematics, algebraic geometry, and quantum computing” could pose potential risks, these sections have now been enriched with more detailed scenarios for how Bitcoin’s cryptographic algorithms could be cracked.
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Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas interpreted BlackRock’s new language as part of a broader risk disclosure update. “To be clear, these are just basic risk disclosures. It’s completely standard procedure that they point out potential issues with every product or asset they list,” Seyffart wrote on X (formerly Twitter).
The document’s risk section, which runs from page 16 to page 65, covers a wide range of topics, from quantum threats to regulatory pressures, potential hard fork scenarios, price volatility, and mining hardware concentrated in China. It also includes the potential impact of Donald Trump’s Bitcoin reserves on the market and the high energy consumption of mining operations.
On the other hand, the year 2025 will witness a global acceleration in quantum science. The United Nations aims to accelerate quantum research by declaring this year as the “International Year of Quantum Science and Technology.”
But academics such as quantum expert Pierre-Luc Dallaire-Demers of the University of Calgary say a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin’s cryptographic security is at least five to seven years away.
*This is not investment advice.