Bitcoin is negatively affected by the conflict between Israel and Iran, with the price moving in a narrow range.
Investor unease has increased due to the uncertainty created by the tension between the two countries and the increasing concerns that the US could be directly involved in possible attacks by Israel against Iran.
At this point, attention today turned to the FED decision, an important macro event that could determine the short-term direction of Bitcoin.
After January, when the FED kept interest rates constant, dollar, gold, stock market and cryptocurrency investors are wondering when the first interest rate cut of 2025 will be made.
When Will the June FED Interest Rate Decision Be Announced?
The FED will announce its June interest rate decision on May 18, 2025 at 21:00 Turkish time.
Following the decision, FED Chairman Jerome Powell will make oral statements at 21:30.
What Will the FED’s Decision Be?
Despite inflation in the US falling to 2.4 percent and President Donald Trump’s calls for drastic interest rate cuts, the Fed is not expected to make any changes to interest rates.
While the overwhelming majority of the market, 99.9%, expects the FED to keep the policy rate constant between 4.25% and 4.50%, only a small portion, 0.1%, expects interest rates to be reduced to 4.00% and 4.25%.
In general, experts expect the Fed to remain cautious despite the decline in inflation, amid ongoing uncertainty over tariffs and tensions in the Middle East.
Atlanta FED President Raphael Bostic, drawing attention to the uncertainties in the economic outlook, said that they need a period of 3 to 6 months to make a more accurate assessment.
BoF Does Not Expect a Cut from FED!
Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave said the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged in June and will not make any cuts this year. However, the analyst added that they left the door open to a decision to cut only one rate in 2025.
“The Fed’s main message at its June meeting will be that it remains comfortably committed to a wait-and-see mode. Ongoing uncertainties are preventing interest rate cuts. Investors should focus on Powell’s assessment of softening labor data, recent benign inflation data, and persistent inflation risks from tariffs.”
In light of all these statements and according to current pricing in money markets, the FED is expected to make its first interest rate cut in September 2025. A total of 2 interest rate cuts are expected by the end of the year.
Powell Statements Are Very Important!
While it is unlikely that the FED will make a surprise rate cut as expected, signals from the policy text and Powell’s statements are expected to have an impact on the direction of the markets.
At this point, Powell’s stance on inflation, growth and interest rate cuts will guide the Bitcoin and crypto markets.
Experts say Powell is cornered and that Powell and the FED have a difficult choice to make.
*This is not investment advice.