Cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket reveals users’ expectations ahead of the FED interest rate decision to be announced tomorrow.
Data on the platform shows that the overwhelming majority in the market thinks the FED will not change its policy rate.
In the prediction market opened for interest rate decisions on Polymarket, a total trading volume of more than $66 million has been created. 98% of users think that the FED will keep the current interest rate constant. More than $22.2 million has been invested in this option.
Looking at other scenarios:
The expectation for a 25 basis point reduction is at 2% and the transaction volume is $18 million.
50 basis point and above reduction probability is priced at less than 1%.
The probability for an increase of more than 25 basis points is also seen as quite low at less than 1%.
Polymarket users are not only predicting interest rate decisions, but also the future price of Bitcoin. More than $8 million has been traded in the market titled “What price will Bitcoin reach in June?”
The most supported level is $100,000, with 56% of users predicting this price will be seen.
It is followed by $95,000 with 25%, $115,000 with 17% and $90,000 with 12%.
Price expectations for $120,000 and above do not exceed 8% in total.
Users also share their predictions about what price Bitcoin will reach in 2025. Here, the highest probability stands out as $120,000 with 71%.
$130,000 estimate 54%,
$150,000 is supported by 33%.
Other notable levels include $70,000 (28%), $200,000 (14%), and $50,000 (12%).
*This is not investment advice.