Bitcoin (BTC) briefly touched the $100,000 level before falling to $95,000, but according to investment management firm ARK Invest, this is a temporary pause before BTC sees a significant increase in value.
David Puell, research associate at ARK Invest, shared an optimistic outlook during an interview, saying: “We are more or less forecasting price targets of $104,000 to $124,000 by the end of the year. With the caveat that this is not a recommendation, but price action so far has held up quite nicely to that forecast.”
Puell bases his predictions on Bitcoin’s historical seasonality (patterns observed in previous bull markets) and on-chain data analysis. Puell believes that Bitcoin’s cyclical nature will remain intact unless there is strong evidence to the contrary. This means that while BTC could reach new highs, it could eventually face a significant pullback similar to what was seen in 2022.
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“I would classify the current market environment as kind of mid-bullish,” Puell explained. “If you’re measuring it from the bottom to the top, I would say we’re about 55% to 65% of the way through.” Based on those metrics, he estimates a potential cycle top between $126,000 and $134,000, but those targets could rise if market momentum picks up.
Puell’s analysis is consistent with the theory of diminishing returns as Bitcoin matures. A peak of $134,000 would mean a doubling of the 2021 all-time high of $69,000, compared to a three-fold increase seen between 2017 and 2021. While ARK Invest has prepared for this scenario, Puell noted that the data is not conclusive on whether this trend will continue.
*This is not investment advice.
