Standard Chartered Predicts Bitcoin to Reach New All-Time High on US Election Day
Standard Chartered, an investment firm, has made a prediction regarding the Bitcoin price reaching a new all-time high. Geoff Kendrick, the Global Head of Digital Assets Research at Standard Chartered, believes that Bitcoin could approach $73,000 on November 5, which is the day of the US presidential election. Kendrick’s predictions are based on analysis of Bitcoin futures and trading volume indicators.
According to Kendrick, the daily Bitcoin volume levels and popular strike levels are used to predict post-election price movements. The analyst’s baseline assumption is that the BTC price will be around $73,000 on election day. Kendrick also mentioned potential price action based on the election outcome. If former President Donald Trump wins the presidency, options breakevens suggest a potential 4% increase in Bitcoin’s price once the results are certified. He also suggested a potential total increase of around 10% in the days following a Trump victory.
Kendrick highlighted the importance of dynamics in the options market and noted the heavy open interest in BTC call options that expired at an $80,000 strike price on December 27. He also mentioned the rapid movement towards this level. Additionally, Kendrick suggested that a Republican takeover of Congress could push Bitcoin prices even higher. He stated that if Republicans take control of Congress, their year-end target for Bitcoin could be $125,000. On the other hand, if Vice President Kamala Harris prevails, Bitcoin could initially experience a drop but is expected to finish 2024 around $75,000.
Furthermore, Kendrick pointed to recent trading activity as a positive indicator for Bitcoin’s future. He stated that the price of Bitcoin has been rising in recent weeks, coinciding with other trades popular with Trump supporters. Kendrick referred to RealClearPolitics’ current odds, which indicate a 59% chance of Trump winning, and certain markets like Polymarket, which have a 75% chance of the Republicans winning the election if Trump wins.
The analyst also suggested that the local low of $65,200 seen on Wednesday could be the final dip before the US elections, indicating increasing momentum heading into November 5.
Please note that this article does not provide investment advice.
