As reported by BlockBeats on November 13, 2026, at 15:56 (UTC+8), analyst Axel Adler Jr. said Bitcoin had briefly fallen to around $68,000 and had spent five consecutive days below the short-term holder realized price of $75,429. That realized price represents the average on-chain cost basis for recent buyers. Adler put the ratio of spot price to that cost basis at about 0.90, implying an aggregate unrealized loss of roughly 10% for short-term holders.
Adler also said the MVRV Z-score had fallen 0.13 over the preceding week to 0.54. It remained positive, but the market’s overall unrealized-profit cushion was narrowing. In the interpretation he gave, a move below zero would indicate that price had fallen beneath the average on-chain cost basis.
Historical comparisons offer context, not a forecast. Adler noted that a turn below zero in late 2022 accompanied a final bout of bear-market capitulation. The score last approached this reading on August 19, when Bitcoin was around $69,335; it rose about 14% over the following week. But the score was at this level or lower on 38% of trading days over the preceding year, so a similar reading alone does not establish what happens next.
Adler described Bitcoin as still in a pullback. He said a sustained return above the short-term holder realized price would strengthen the case that support was forming, while an MVRV Z-score below zero would point to deeper pressure. Neither threshold is a guaranteed signal.